Who will win the presidential election in Portugal tomorrow, January 18? This is a pre-election poll.
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Portugal : The European country of Portugal will hold presidential elections tomorrow, Sunday (January 18, 2026). The term of the long-serving head of state, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is about to end, and the country is set to elect a new president.
Since the current constitution prohibits any person from serving more than two consecutive terms as president, this election is certain to provide Portugal with new leadership, making this election historic and significant.
More than half a dozen candidates, both independent and with different political leanings, are competing in this election. Among the main contenders are former Portuguese Navy Chief of Staff (Admiral) Henrique Gouvia e Mello, who is very popular with the public due to the success of the Covid vaccination campaign, and former leader of the ruling Socialist Party (PS) António José Seguro. Similarly, Luis Marques Mendes, who is supported by the center-right (PSD), and André Ventura, the leader of the far-right Chega party, which has a strong anti-immigration policy, are also seen as strong contenders. In addition, candidates from the Liberal Initiative and the left-wing bloc have also made the election competition interesting.
According to analysts, if no candidate manages to get more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a run-off is likely in February.
Despite the bad weather and cold, candidates are making their last efforts on the streets, and social media has also been flooded with advertisements and video messages.
This election has also become a matter of special interest for the Nepali community in Portugal. Issues such as immigration policy, housing problems and improving healthcare are particularly important issues in this year’s election. While some candidates have raised the issue of tightening immigration policies, others have advocated for inclusive and flexible policies.
So Nepalis living here are closely watching who wins and what impact they will have on the future government. Sunday’s vote will determine Portugal’s next five-year head of state.
Here’s the poll:
Far-right in the lead, second round likely!
By Sergio Goncalves and Andrei Khalip
Amid growing political divisions in Portugal, Sunday’s presidential election is almost certain to require a second round for the first time in 40 years, with fresh opinion polls suggesting that a second round of voting will be necessary for the seats in the second round.
The presidency in Portugal is largely a ceremonial role, but he wields some key powers, including dissolving parliament in certain circumstances, calling snap parliamentary elections and vetoing legislation.
According to a survey by Catholic University pollsters published by the daily Público on Wednesday, Andrés Vintura, the far-right, anti-establishment leader of the main opposition party Sega, is leading with 24% of the vote, followed by the Socialist Party’s Antonio José Seguro on 23%.
João Cotrim de Figueiredo, a member of the European Parliament from the pro-business Liberal Initiative party, also showed significant support with 19% of the vote, given the 2.2% margin of error in the survey of 1,770 voters.
The poll showed that two other candidates, including Luis Márquez Mendes, who is backed by the ruling center-right Social Democrats (PSD), had 14% of the vote.
Smaller tracking polls conducted in the past week have shown the gap between the top five presidential candidates narrowing.
Political divide
In the five decades since Portugal threw off its right-wing dictatorship, a second round of presidential elections has only been required once, in 1986, demonstrating how complex the political landscape has become with the rise of the far-right and voters' disillusionment with the mainstream PSD and socialist parties.
"As voters' votes continue to be divided, it is likely that the two traditional party candidates will receive fewer votes than their respective parties did in last year's parliamentary elections," said political analyst Antonio Costa Pinto, who saw Chega overtake the Socialists in the presidential election.
Although Ventura leads the latest polls, analysts point to his high disapproval rating of more than 60% of voters in all recent opinion polls, meaning he will likely lose to any of the top four contenders in the second round.
But reaching the second round would likely be a "victory in itself" for Ventura, Costa Pinto said, helping Chega gain more leverage with the minority center-right government.
José Castelo Branco of Lisbon's Catholic University said one thing that seems certain in this race is that Ventura is "consolidating his position at the political center of Portugal" as opposition leader.
