Who will win the presidential
election in Portugal tomorrow, January 18? This is a pre-election poll.
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| Source:Google image |
Portugal : The European
country of Portugal will hold presidential elections tomorrow, Sunday (January
18, 2026). The term of the long-serving head of state, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa,
is about to end, and the country is set to elect a new president.
Since the current
constitution prohibits any person from serving more than two consecutive terms
as president, this election is certain to provide Portugal with new leadership,
making this election historic and significant.
More than half a dozen
candidates, both independent and with different political leanings, are
competing in this election. Among the main contenders are former Portuguese
Navy Chief of Staff (Admiral) Henrique Gouvia e Mello, who is very popular with
the public due to the success of the Covid vaccination campaign, and former
leader of the ruling Socialist Party (PS) António José Seguro. Similarly, Luis
Marques Mendes, who is supported by the center-right (PSD), and André Ventura,
the leader of the far-right Chega party, which has a strong anti-immigration
policy, are also seen as strong contenders. In addition, candidates from the
Liberal Initiative and the left-wing bloc have also made the election
competition interesting.
According to analysts, if no
candidate manages to get more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a
run-off is likely in February.
Despite the bad weather and
cold, candidates are making their last efforts on the streets, and social media
has also been flooded with advertisements and video messages.
This election has also become
a matter of special interest for the Nepali community in Portugal. Issues such
as immigration policy, housing problems and improving healthcare are
particularly important issues in this year’s election. While some candidates
have raised the issue of tightening immigration policies, others have advocated
for inclusive and flexible policies.
So Nepalis living here are
closely watching who wins and what impact they will have on the future
government. Sunday’s vote will determine Portugal’s next five-year head of
state.
Here’s the poll:
Far-right in the lead, second
round likely!
Amid growing political divisions in Portugal, Sunday’s presidential election is almost certain to require a second round for the first time in 40 years, with fresh opinion polls suggesting that a second round of voting will be necessary for the seats in the second round.
The presidency in Portugal is
largely a ceremonial role, but he wields some key powers, including dissolving
parliament in certain circumstances, calling snap parliamentary elections and
vetoing legislation.
According to a survey by
Catholic University pollsters published by the daily Público on Wednesday,
Andrés Vintura, the far-right, anti-establishment leader of the main opposition
party Sega, is leading with 24% of the vote, followed by the Socialist Party’s
Antonio José Seguro on 23%.
João Cotrim de Figueiredo, a
member of the European Parliament from the pro-business Liberal Initiative
party, also showed significant support with 19% of the vote, given the 2.2%
margin of error in the survey of 1,770 voters.
The poll showed that two
other candidates, including Luis Márquez Mendes, who is backed by the ruling
center-right Social Democrats (PSD), had 14% of the vote.
Smaller tracking polls
conducted in the past week have shown the gap between the top five presidential
candidates narrowing.
Political divide
In the five decades since
Portugal threw off its right-wing dictatorship, a second round of presidential
elections has only been required once, in 1986, demonstrating how complex the
political landscape has become with the rise of the far-right and voters'
disillusionment with the mainstream PSD and socialist parties.
"As voters' votes
continue to be divided, it is likely that the two traditional party candidates
will receive fewer votes than their respective parties did in last year's
parliamentary elections," said political analyst Antonio Costa Pinto, who
saw Chega overtake the Socialists in the presidential election.
Although Ventura leads the
latest polls, analysts point to his high disapproval rating of more than 60% of
voters in all recent opinion polls, meaning he will likely lose to any of the
top four contenders in the second round.
But reaching the second round
would likely be a "victory in itself" for Ventura, Costa Pinto said,
helping Chega gain more leverage with the minority center-right government.
José Castelo Branco of
Lisbon's Catholic University said one thing that seems certain in this race is
that Ventura is "consolidating his position at the political center of
Portugal" as opposition leader.
